The gold-mine of exploding communities: fast-growing sub-reddits...
looking at male polish, the lost generation, birding, no nut november and other trends
Hey,
Today I’m going to look at a few fast-growing sub-reddits and their relation to bigger macro trends happening in the world.
Why Reddit?
Sub-reddits are often a place where obsessive or power users of a topic or product first gather and start discussing it. So they can be early indicators of something that might become more mainstream. Other forums and online communities act in the same way.
EXAMPLE - r/dopaminedetoxing started as a small but very rapidly growing sub-reddit in late April and early May 2020. It surged to 23,000 members from almost out of nowhere. In September, Netflix released The Social Dilemma which further brought the idea of detoxing into mainstream consciousness but the early seeds for it can be seen in the sub-reddit and other small communities. (r/nosurf - stopping mindlessly scrolling on the internet - is in a similar vein to this as well).
Before we start…
Trends drop: Here is a link to a folder of 30 growing and exponential search trend graphs (a list below). 📈 📈 📈 These trends are selected from more than 25,000 rising search queries we monitor every week.
What’s a trend drop? It’s a list of interesting exponentially growing search queries, which I don’t go into more detail explaining, but still want you to know about. Trends drops happen once a month for unpaid subscribers and every week (or more frequently) for paid supporters (alongside the usual analysis of different trends in consumer and e-com).
Gmail may clip the email at the bottom so just click to see the whole thing!
We are working on a Alpha version of a TikTok hashtag popularity tracking tool. I am looking for early users to better understand the product requirements, so if you are interested, drop me a message.
Search trend increases over the past 12 months (from Drive folder)
PSA grading (+558%)
MLM meaning (
Rejection sensitive dysphoria (267%)
Manga panel (444%)
Mall goth (817%)
Jaded London (567%)
Hiboy Scooter (160%)
Delta 8 THC (3,210%)
Crosswave Pet Pro (733%)
Clean energy ETF (1,140%)
Cicapair (251%)
Abortion clinic near me (168%)
Flamingo toy (559%)
Kancan jeans (44%)
Outdoor propane heater (344%)
Remote customer service jobs (128% -> 5 year increase is 673%)
Vintage hoodies (145% -> 5 year increase is 394%)
Factor meals (505%)
Safety can express (963%)
Love’s furniture (1,847%)
Anyway let’s get to the Reddit trends…
r/malepolish
A sub-reddit for men (including cis male, male-identifying, trans men, etc.) to share stories, post photos of their polished nails, and discuss anything related to nail polish or its relation/correlation to gender expression. Those for whom the wearing of polish may also pose challenges (genderqueer, genderfluid, androgyne, trans women, etc.) are likewise welcome.
"Male polish" is a trend that has surged recently partly thanks to Marc Jacobs. The American creator posted a picture of him on Instagram last March, where he showed a dark purple varnish on his nails.
The phenomenon took off further especially with the hashtag #malepolish, which counts more than 11.4k posts on IG. Rock musicians have been doing it for decades (e.g. Kurt Cobain, David Bowie, Iggy Pop - also see artists like Machine Gun Kelly and Yungblud today and actors like Jared Leto) but it is interesting to see the behaviour spill out more into the mainstream with this kind of sub-reddit growth.
MACRO - r/pointlesslygendered has been a growing sub-reddit for quite some time too. It gained another 466 subscribers in the past 24 hours and has hit 243k now. I discussed it in more detail on the letter back in May. I.e. there are many areas of traditionally female or male consumption, outside of beauty and fashion as well, that may have a niche market on the other side or could be ripe for a ‘genderless’ version.
In fact that sub-reddit is a good treasure trove of ideas if you are interested in the space (sort by top for the week/month/year to get ideas - orient the brand around the language, humour, imagery the sub uses - start with one product and expand out if you get traction). Also check autocompletes in Google, Amazon, Pinterest and Etsy for other ideas of where to start (‘genderless’ and ‘unisex’ queries).
r/drawmytattoo (have discussed before for paid subs)
Want someone to draw your tattoo for you? Want to draw a tattoo? This area brings the two together. If you ask or offer payment you will be banned, this is for fun only. A licensed tattoo artist is the only person who should be designing your tattoo.
The tattoo industry in the US has nearly DOUBLED in revenue since 2007
It grew from $1.6billion to more than $3billion in annual revenue
Big tattoo artists like Bang Bang mentioned Instagram driving much of their client growth
In the US, in January 2020, there were about 20,000 tattoo parlours across the country and more than 1/3 of people between the ages of 25-29 were reported to have a tattoo.
Of course with the boom in tattoos came the boom in removals as well.
Which is about a $700 million annual industry in the States (110,000 - 120,000 removals each year).
‘Some people’s tattoo skills don’t translate to their photo skills, and some people’s photo skills don’t translate to their tattoo skills.’
With a lot of business coming through Instagram there has also been a great deal of fraudulent and unlicensed sellers flocking to take advantage and this sub-reddit is one element of combatting that in the face of increased tattoo demand.
MACRO - When an industry takes off you should always think about the opposite or equal reaction to it, especially if it involves an application to the body or a health impact OR something with an addictive or impulsive property, people seek solutions to overdoing it (the r/leaves sub-reddit for quitting smoking cannabis has also been growing). And especially if it is a bit of a ‘Wild West’ as tattooing became with the IG-boom and less regulation on qualified people makes for more mistakes/issues people want to reverse.
r/lostgeneration
The Lost Generation sub-reddit has grown well over the past few years. It is over 100k members now but I still wanted to cover it because I think it is interesting.
For those who did everything our parents told us to do... now what?
There are posts like a girl using a purchasing power calculator to show up her internship boss’s comment about making $6 an hour in a mail room in 1979 (which translated to $18.73 an hour in 2017 terms). A lot of disillusionment memes about how their parents were married before 30 with kids on one form of income. General venting and frustration about how they have been short changed by higher education and other socio-economic forces.
Andrew Yang and Bernie Sanders are quite popular on the sub-reddit as well. The posters aren’t always necessarily that left-leaning but they argue that the current system of capitalism is not working for them to get further ahead in life (r/latestagecapitalism is another sub-reddit that has been growing).
MACRO - There is clearly an animosity to some elements of the Baby Boomer generation or moreso ‘how easy they had it’ coming from younger age groups. ‘Boomer’ comes up a lot in an antagonistic way amongst many posts. Somewhat manifested in ‘Ok boomer’ last year as well which became its own cultural force. Income inequality has always been with us. Ever since humans started farming, some have done better than others. The pattern holds from the Stone Age through Ancient Rome to World War II. Walter Scheidel, a professor of History at Stanford University, in his book, The Great Leveler, says only the so-called “four horsemen” of war, disease, state collapse and revolution have succeeded in levelling income. And as soon as the devastation is over, income inequality builds again. So things like the growth of this sub-reddit are not encouraging in the long-run for the maintenance of stable societies.
r/Twitch_Startup
Welcome to twitch_startup. Where new/undervalued streamers can meetup, network, and learn how to improve their streams. Feel free to post your channels and find streamers to watch. Discord Link: https://discord.gg/twitchstartup
Naturally there are a bunch of memes in there about people getting their first followers and chats (also celebrating wins like getting free gear from Razer or Logitech G) e.g. ‘how it feels in that pre-affiliate grind’. But essentially the sub boils down to people trying to help each other get their streaming career going.
Every so often there is a growth hacking friend on how to get a Twitch channel going quickly. E.g. ‘meme jacking’ and using directly relatable stuff in titles, streaming semi-popular games (not immediately going for LOL or DOTA), the latest thumbnail tricks and so forth.
MACRO - Like r/entrepreneur or r/startup it is all about tips and tricks for doing something different to the 9 to 5. People in the sub-reddit are treating being a streamer like starting a company or a career - how to get initial users, keep them, effective monetisation strategies and other things common to apps, SaaS and other business models.
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r/birding
Birding. birdwatching. twitching. listing. whatever you want to call it, if you are looking at or listening to birds, this is where you should be.
On the sub-reddit people post photos of many different types of bird - everything from cardinals to owls. Perhaps not a coincidence but r/backyardchickens also saw member growth of just over 9% for the past 30 days.
Earlier in the year I also covered the fast growth of the r/crowbro sub-reddit which saw impressive growth (going from 2,240 members in January to 25k in May) and YouTube creators like Falconry and Me who grew her channel by 100k subs during lockdown.
MACRO - anthropomorphism that has been more reserved for primary pets (dogs and cats) is expanding out to other animals. Sometimes this can be parental or maternal instincts as well (the extension of ‘fur babies’). I’m basically always looking for when people start using personal pronouns with things (this happened with houseplants a while back as well - ‘plant parents’) - this is usually a strong indicator that the obsession around something is growing. This is no different for looking at the adoption curve for other things too like VR influencers (do people call Lil Miquela ‘she’?).
There is also the factor of lockdown pushing people to pursue new activities and things they have not previously considered, birdwatching one of these as an easy way to get out in nature as well (like cycling and open water swimming which also saw boosts during the first wave of lockdowns and leisure centres/gyms closing). ‘Birdwatching’ did actually spike to its highest level of search interest in 5 years during March and April (disrupting a fairly seasonal albeit noisy pattern).
r/SugarBabyArrangement - (have discussed before for paid subs)
The r/sugarbabyarrangement (WARNING: NSFW) sub-reddit has been experiencing exponential member growth at low numbers in the past few months. It has now hit just over 6k members after being at 420 members on September 2nd. Like OnlyFans that saw an initial boost in signups for creators when lockdowns began (60,000 in March), it is likely that people who have been economically hit are considering other options in the dating and sex markets.
MACRO - In bad times more (and more attractive) women enter the prostitution or sexual favours market, but they have a higher reservation wage, so they charge more. Less attractive and even cheaper prostitutes may still be available, but for a variety of reasons (reputational risk/perceived risk of STDs/wage declines for customers) the customer will not desire the cheapest option…thus demand increases as prices rise. ⬇️ The lower end of the market gets gutted as men’s (nearly all of the customers) wages reduce and unemployment rises, but the upper end is more robust (hence Sugar Daddy growth).
The Atlantic also hypothesised back in 2015 that high student debts has precipitated the development of sugar baby/daddy sites like Seeking Arrangement, which claimed that nearly 1.4 million students had signed up on it back in 2015 (detected from .edu addresses and other markers). High student debts alongside diminished typical student job opportunities (with many restaurants and retail job cutting back on staff currently) may have also been part of the reason for the recent surge in Sugar Daddy and Baby activity.
r/Chiraqology
a subreddit to discuss drill music and Chicago gang culture.
Although the sub is supposedly about the music it gets heavily involved in the criminal element of it too. For example:
They have a monthly update for murders (just 5 days there was a King Von Atlanta shooting megathread).
They listen to police scanners for information
Some even claim to rep for gangs themselves
One commenter actually said it has:
‘reached beyond a point of fascination and reached obsession with this gang life, treating this s*** like its a TV show/ telenovela. They're (the sub-reddit) so heavily invested in this s*** bro.’
MACRO - I think there is something interesting happening with this from a sociological POV. There’s a few theories but I’d place it on middle or upper middle class fascination with thug/gang culture & urban poverty (violence and struggles they haven’t faced to the same extent - they like watching it from afar, human fascination). If you look in Google Trends at ‘drill music’ the relative search interest in Connecticut in 2020 which has a per capita income of $77,289 is 25% higher than that in Illinois (where Chicago is) which has a per capita income around $37,000 (2018 data) - not a perfect comparison but you can see the point.
Look at Vice’s Noisey series that looked into Atlanta trap for example. Huffington Post made the argument a few years ago (2015) that ‘brands are busy harvesting street styles to sell everything from cars to kicks’ whilst politicians and parents simultaneously try to get to grips with it and condemn it - thus making it seem cooler.
r/NoNutNovember
Associated with the r/nofap community. No Nut November is a variation on Movember or No Shave November. And has twisted it to encourage men not to masturbate, watch porn or have sex for the entirety of November as a form of self-improvement.
People describe going through different phases with it. E.g. flatlining is when you lose the desire for sex after a few days of abstinence and this period can last anywhere from a few days to 3 weeks.
I’ve discussed this before but search interest around ‘semen retention’, its purported benefits and the sub-reddit for it has seen strong growth over the past year.
The r/antipornography sub-reddit also grew its members quite impressively earlier in the year (12k members now) - although the focus here is more on anti-trafficking and prostitution.
Also of note is that ‘porn addiction apps’ saw a 1,500% increase in search interest in the US over the past 12 months. The search interest for ‘no nut november’ was also 4x higher than Movember in the US this year.
MACRO - This is in aid of self-improvement and detoxing. The No Fap sub-reddit (which has been around a very long time) is filled with testimonials of men who have tried it and reported better focus, ability to talk to women, higher confidence and other benefits. Theses kinds of communities (like dopamine detoxing as well) have religious overtones (following what monks and priests have been doing for centuries) to them and are quite fanatical (it is no coincidence this sub-reddit also had a highly active and pinned Sober October thread too). Thus high LTV customers in here who would be obsessive about supplements, courses, gurus if you wanted to go this route.
Some other high growth sub-reddits 📈
Anti scam and anti-MLM schemes (r/antimlm) - Anti-MLM sub-reddit has hit nearly 670,000 members.
The search interest for “MLM meaning” has increased by 135% over the last year
r/doordash_drivers (10% growth for the month)- Naturally, at work, people often connect with a shared love, distaste or thoughts about the job they are doing. So it is not surprising that people mingle online to complain or talk about their job with other people all over the world or country in similar positions - further boosted by more remote work. It takes the ‘water cooler’ chat or office mingling moments and puts it online. (r/barista and r/kitchenconfidential are other strong examples)
r/manhands - because apparently men’s hands are so appealing to look at…went from 10k members at the start of October to 16k members now.
r/AutisticPride - grew by nearly 10% for the month.
r/pelletgrills - has grown from 2,400 members in January 2019 to 44,000 in November 2020.
r/gameverifying - Wondering if your games are fake or not? Want to share your experiences with real, fake or repro carts? Have some suspect video game covers, consoles and/or discs? This is the place for you.
r/quilling -> This sub-reddit is dedicated to paper quilling, the art of rolling and/or manipulating strips of paper to make amazing crafts.
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